Thursday, January 31, 2008

We're being peaked!

Please bare with me for a while, things are just too much to contain right now and I need to spread the load. (I may wrap this up as an article, hence some repetitions from last rant).

The oil prices could act as a storyteller of modern history. Much conspiracy, war and drama unravels around it so when plotting the price development for last hundred years it's no surprise it's looks more of the readings from a Richter meter in San Fransisco then a clean schoolbook example of demand/supply. However, the oil market has since long left the cloud of confusion whipped up by the Iraq occupation and is forced to look at other explanations to last years development. Logistic problems, lack of investment and of course manipulation from the undemocratic states (read "non marketized economies") in OPEC has been pointed out by analysts as sources. All leading to the same conclusion, we've faced a temporary glitch that's just an idle phase before the invisible hand arrives. On the economy pages no one cries wolf as it would implicate heresy - "are you not a believer in the system? There's no such thing as limited resources, only higher prices and it's corrections". As usual that doesn't stop our market fundamentalistic leaders to interfere. Bush doing some pep talk on his Saudi mates, pleading them to open the pumps while at the same time the Iraqi OPEC representives says that there is really not a demand - just confusion. That's quite a misunderstanding I'd say.

But in South Africa the capitalists hasn't been this nervous since Mandela talked about nationalisation the industry. Lately blackouts are frequent, sudden and they last for whole days. Major industries are frozen and to run crying to the governments doesn't give any comfort. "People is already living with just an hour of power a day" a spokesman said. Redistribution simply can't fill the gap. What's needed is more juice. On the other side of the global ballpark an old Shell boss pops up in media and surprises everyone by asking for limited fuel consummation on civil transports to tackle climate change. He's got quite allot on his CV this guy so it's understandable that he gets attention. Right now he sitting as chairman for the mining company Anglo American, heavily invested in South Africa. While South Africa is extreme, there is also problems reported from China, India, Brazil and Chile.

Freeze the film. We've got a oil price steady floating around 100$, an American president that can't get the oil he's asking for, OPEC refusing to deliver more for no apparent reason, industry asks for civil energy restrictions and not to forget an ongoing war mainly about oil that no president candidate seem eager to stop.

Please tell me we're on peak bullshit. A news-googling on "peak oil" shows NO MAJOR NEWSPAPER HAS WRITTEN ANYTHING FOR MONTHS. I'm sincerely impressed the truth ministry on this one. Peak oil is not really a conspiracy, it's a well accepted fact. Wheather or not we're actually right on the top of the historical point in human history, where energy will become more and more inaccessible it doesn't even come across the journalists of the world to even raise the question. Of course, at some point even the economists has to deal with the real world but until then we're leaving some valuable time for a few knowing men to strike some deals. While the financial writers debates the depth of the sub-prime crisis, Bush presents financial aid to the crippled economy, slashing 17'000 public jobs, reduces income taxes, increasing war spending, further sacrifice environmental protection and make up an even more bizarre overall spending figure. When seen in the light of the upcoming election this may be interpreted as an attempt to weld the Republican politics into the white house but if one instead accept the urgency of peak oil it is starting to look as pillaging. That story can only be told by us.

Peak oil is a moment of change. On the bottom lies an inevitable simple physical truth but the choices presented to us is political. We will by all measurements have a shrinking global economy the near decades. In physical terms this shouldn't leave us in bad shape considering our biological needs and resources but our current economic system demands growth and herein lies the problem. It's my impression that the peak oil awareness group tend to focus on the predictable factors of a peak oil scenario. Calculating and predicting the factors as if we were standing before a struggle between man against nature. They've chosen to forget their own message that it doesn't matter how much we produce in absolute terms, it's relative to our expectations. There's only us. From a tactical perspective it can make sense to not present this as a right/left question but it is fairly obvious that that's where it's leading us. After the peak there we will have to divide a set amount of oil between us instead of getting more until we fill the total need. The question then comes if we should leave this to the market or some sort of democratic arrangement. Even on short term the outcome is unclear. Industry will need to feed it's growth based projects with more and more oil and will try to use government to secure the supply, shortcutting before any civil usage. An ugly parallel is drawn right now as bio fuels and food directly competes about the fertile ground of the world. As the north's transport interest is put up against South's food need the outcome is depressingly predictable- famine. Both EU and America were early in setting bio fuels targets and is leading a rush for bio fuels that no environmental movement worth it's name is supporting. The states is on a mission and it's client obviously isn't us. It is my hope that the battle following peak oil awareness will be fought with this scenario in mind. Not forgetting the lesson that both the environmentalist and globalisation movements learned, this is nothing else then capitalism in it's free form and if competition is it's game, then competition it shall have.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

plane splat

First version of the splat. I'm going for a more comical aproach here as it's not the climax.
I may have done a mistake of doing this so early as it's making it harder to change the timing of the earlier events. Next up is character animation and when I get my home machine back I'll take care of the plane texture and some other 2d stuff.

Saturday, January 26, 2008

plane engine smoke

Test for engine smoke. Thgis is a 2D sim, it takes place only within a flat plane. This enables more stylistic look, higher details and is a lot cheaper work wise. It's a good thing.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

First End

Ending1_01 (please don't mind the codec)
vad som syns har ar:
1. We back out from the city to the plane
2. Airplane loose altitude
3. Crazyness in the cockpit, struggle about the wheel o' somethin
4. In the plane passanger are shooting at each other and people are killed in crossfire. guns and screems through vissible text like "Ahhhh" and "Bang"
5. On the wings people load coal into the engines and thich black smoke flows out
6. Comical crash, plane is folded into something that looks more like a turd then realistic wreck
7. Bycicle man goes by and rings bell
8. Back in time
8. People climb out airplane and mounts windturbines on it.
9. Plane trajectory is straighting out
10. Speed decline
11. Plane dissintegrate into pieces
12. Pieces all has at least one guy and one wind powerplant each, they part and fades into the surrounding in an abstract manner
13. I do something completely different

Monday, January 21, 2008

another post


A scary thing with projects is that they offen take more time then they were ment to. I'm in a good mood to waste time though.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

3rd post of the day


I'm not bothered by the anatomical disproportions of his face. Adding some meatiness, changed shoulder perspective error reduced extreme colorization of mouth and eyes and added main shadows.

animatedSketching

Picked up an idea from a tutorial that I think is pretty cool, to paint in realtime on a 3d object and generate geometry. I assigned my 3d brush to it and voila.

portrait thingy

Spontaneously brushed a little on this thing.

Friday, January 18, 2008

Deal colour glitches fixed

Updated the cut file.
Not much, some colour stuff in the deal and some glitches. More tomorrow.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

dude03

He starts to look a bit like my old caracter "the Scientist" which I'll take away later. Right now I just want to get some proportions and weight in him.

airplane modell

Kinda done airplane modell.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

A while later, kinda look shit but I need a fresh pair of eyes to see what's wrong so it's time to nana.

dude01

Began on this guy, long time since I did some free 2d things.

Saturday, January 12, 2008

Cut update 2

Brought a lot of loose pieces together. Lowres (29MB) High res (69MB).
The sound department hinted that we are to expect "foley stuff" more "natural" and "sound effects helping to tell the story". We're to hear what that means later this spring.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

City ocean and sky update

Newest ocean shader and the updated sky painting. Same link, just overwritten the file. Roads coming later tonight and I've been thinking to adding some abstract elements to make it intresting.

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

City comp

Added elements from my weekend work to the city. Comp here. Some allready made stuff are still missing- roads, a refined BG, non flickering ocean surface and some changes to the text. Overall I think it's getting a bit cheesy so hopefully I can tone it down just tweaking the colours.